Oscar Predictions 2010

Going into this year's Academy Awards, it seems that there are sure bets in every category and that this could be one of the least surprising awards ceremonies in quite a while. But this being the Oscars and all, you just know there are going to be some surprises. While the acting categories seem all but locked up by their respective frontrunners at this point, the Best Picture race, ten nominees wide, really comes down to three: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, and Inglourious Basterds. It's going to be a close race, and the Oscar telecast producers are probably glad that category is saved for last so everyone stays tuned in.

In years past, I've averaged about 18 out of 24 correct, and I have no reason to think this year will be any different, but you never know. So, for what it's worth, here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE: Avatar

The smart money's on Hurt, but I think Inglourious is the dark horse here, and could possibly upset. I'd be very happy if it did. Hurt Locker is great, but overrated. It's sort of the Million Dollar Baby-type of Oscar winner.

3/3/10 update: Now I'm starting to feel the tides turning in Avatar's favor. There could very well be a rare split between Picture and Director this year. I'm sticking with Hurt for now, but am contemplating a last-minute switch to Avatar - stay tuned.

3/5/10 update: It's official - I'm switching to Avatar for Best Picture.

BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Bridges was robbed of a nomination for his role as The Dude in The Big Lebowski. This is payback. Not really, but it certainly doesn't hurt his cause that he's never won. Plus, he's really good in Crazy Heart.

BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

I think this one would have been closer if The Blind Side hadn't eked out a Best Picture nomination - clearly somebody in the Academy liked that movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Nobody else even comes close. Waltz gave the performance of the year - it's his to lose.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, Precious

This is a one-woman race, despite some great performances from fellow nominees Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga.

BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

No female director has ever one the big prize. Even if The Hurt Locker doesn't win Best Picture, Bigelow's razor-sharp direction will come out on top.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Inglourious Basterds

Quentin's finest script since Pulp Fiction, and that's saying something. Brilliant dialogue. If this doesn't win and Hurt Locker does, I'll be pissed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Up in the Air

This is Up in the Air's best shot at winning, and it probably will.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Up

Up is only the second animated film to be nominated for Best Picture after Beauty and the Beast. This is its consolation prize.

BEST FOREIGN FILM: A Prophet

I haven't seen any of the nominees. The White Ribbon has a known and respected director, and fantastic cinematography, but seems to leave people a little cold. That's not the case with France's A Prophet, which just swept the Cesar awards, and is batting a 95% on rottentomatoes.

BEST DOCUMENTARY: The Cove

Bourne-like suspense coupled with powerful footage and an important message about animal rights should make this one tough to beat.

BEST FILM EDITING: The Hurt Locker

Hurt's quick cut, nerve-jangling build of suspense should win.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Avatar

Gorgeous to look at, even if most of it was rendered by a computer

BEST ART DIRECTION: Avatar

Pandora sure was pretty. Many people actually want to live there now.

BEST SCORE: Up

Michael Giacchino's beautiful score has the upper hand due to that early music-only montage in the movie.

BEST SONG: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart

A good song featured prominently in the movie, and sung by surefire Oscar-winner Bridges.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar

District 9's effects were scrappier and impressive given the budget, but Avatar's were revolutionary.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Young Victoria

Ornate period pieces usually win this category, so I'm sticking with tradition.

BEST MAKEUP: Star Trek

It's a shame that Trek only gets to win one Oscar tonight, but Eric Bana and his Romulan cohorts were the most showy of these makeup nominees.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The New Tenants

Haven't seen it, but hear it's awesome, and people sound the most passionate about this one.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Logorama

Another Wallace and Gromit short from director Nick Park, who's won before.

3/5/10 update: So, after reading a bit more about these nominees, it sounds like Logorama is pretty cool. I'm betting against tradition now, in the hopes that Wallace and Gromit are viewed as kind of "been there, done that."

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Music by Prudence

Certainly sounds timely.

3/5/10 update: I've read up on this category a bit more, and it sounds like The Last Truck is timely but a little too sappy. I'm switching to Music by Prudence.

BEST SOUND EDITING: Avatar

Toss-up between this and The Hurt Locker.

BEST SOUND MIXING: The Hurt Locker

I'm splitting the baby on these sound categories in the hopes that I'll get at least one right.

There you have it. Let's check back and see how I do after the ceremony.

Projected Oscar totals:

The Hurt Locker: 3

Avatar: 5

Inglourious Basterds: 2

Up: 2

Crazy Heart: 2

Star Trek: 1

Up in the Air: 1

Precious: 1

The Young Victoria: 1

The Blind Side: 1

The Cove: 1

A Prophet: 1

- John