Last Minute Oscar Nomination Predictions

When the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced they were expanding the Best Picture nominees to a field of ten, I rejoiced. Having made the colossal mistake of leaving The Dark Knight out of last year's Best Pic race, it seems the Academy realized the errors of their ways. It's a win-win for all: more love gets shown on more movies, with bigger box office receipts and telecast ratings sure to follow.

It's been an unusually long Oscar season, with all the other award shows pushing their ceremonies ahead of the nominations. As a result, prognosticators like yours truly have had plenty of time to winnow down the nominees and pick the ten likely recipients.

I'm only going to predict the Best Picture nominees for now. The acting and screenplay nominees seem pointless, since the winners are all but guaranteed to be: Jeff Bridges (actor), Sandra Bullock (actress), Christoph Waltz (supporting actor), Mo'Nique (supporting actress), Inglourious Basterds (original screenplay), and Up in the Air (adapted screenplay). The other categories are just as clear-cut: The Cove (documentary), Up (animated film), The White Ribbon (foreign language film), and Avatar for almost every technical category.

This seems like one of the rare years where Best Picture and Best Director diverge. With her recent win at the DGAs, Kathryn Bigelow is poised to become the first female to win Best Director. But will The Hurt Locker win Best Picture? My guess is no. Avatar will likely take that prize. There's still a lot of time between now and March 7 though. We'll see who has the momentum at that point. And when will the inevitable Avatar backlash begin? I think it already has...

But enough blabbering. Let's get to my predictions for the Best Picture nominees:

DEFINITELY

Avatar

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Up in the Air

Precious

LIKELY

Up

Invictus

An Education

MAYBE

District 9

A Serious Man

So, that's my pick for the 10 nominees. I'd love for Star Trek to get in there, and if it does, I will be ecstatic. Check back again closer to the actual awards ceremony for all my final predictions of the winners.

- John